Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 54.6% in August (Briefing.com consensus: 55.3%) from 55.6% in July. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the August figure suggests manufacturing activity expanded in August from the prior month but at a slower pace.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that slower growth was indicated across most report categories. The notable exception was prices, which increased at the same pace as the prior month.
• Construction spending decreased 0.5% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an upwardly revised unchanged reading (from -0.1%) for June. On a year-over-year basis, construction spending was down 3.8%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the weakness in the residential sector and particularly in new single-family construction, which is being tested by higher financing costs.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 4.36%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 4.42%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 4.52%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.76%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 5.24%