Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total retail sales declined 0.6% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in June. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.2% decline in June.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that control retail sales dropped 0.4% month-over-month. This figure will feed into GDP forecasts, so there is apt to be some downward revisions to Q3 GDP forecasts.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 4.13%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 4.20%
  • 5-yr: UNCH at 4.32%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.65%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 5.23%