Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total CPI was up 0.1% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus: 0.1%) following a 0.4% decline in June. That left the year-over-year rate at 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an unchanged reading for June. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI was up 2.5% versus 2.6% in June.
  • The July CPI report, at the least, did not stoke "new" concerns that the Fed will have to raise rates at the September FOMC meeting. That is the key takeaway from the report, and it was embedded in the realization that this report came in as expected.
    • The food index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.0% year-over-year.
    • The energy index was down 1.5% month-over-month, with gasoline down 2.9%, and up 14.7% year-over-year.
    • The shelter index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.2% year-over-year.
    • The used cars and trucks index was up 0.4% month-over-month but down 1.9% year-over-year.
    • The apparel index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.9% year-over-year.
    • The services index was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 3.1% year-over-year.
    • The all-items index, less food, shelter, and energy, was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 1.9% year-over-year.
    • From July 2025 to July 2026, real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2%, seasonally adjusted. Real average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis decreased 0.1%.
• According to the CME fedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point hike at the September FOMC meeting is 36.1% versus 45.9% prior to the release of the CPI report.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -4 bps to 4.18%
  • 3-yr: -3 bps to 4.25%
  • 5-yr: -4 bps to 4.35%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.65%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 5.22%