Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Durable goods orders rose 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) after an upwardly revised 4.0% decrease (from -4.5%) in May. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.8% (from 1.3%) in May.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the headline miss masked upward revisions to readings from May and concealed a 0.9% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding transportation, which is considered a proxy for business spending. On a year-over-year basis, these orders are up 9.3%.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 4.32%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 4.35%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.40%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.65%
  • 30-yr: -4 bps to 5.12%