Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total retail sales increased 0.9% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.5%) in April. Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) on the heels of an unrevised 0.7% increase in April.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it shows real demand. The data are not adjusted for price changes, and retail sales activity in May outpaced the rate of inflation (+0.5%) in May. Moreover, excluding gasoline station sales (+3.4%), retail sales were still up 0.7%.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 4.06%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 4.10%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 4.16%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.43%
  • 30-yr: UNCH at 4.93%