Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Import prices jumped 1.9% month-over-month in May and were up 6.7% year-over-year. Excluding fuel, import prices rose 0.8% month-over-month and were up 3.7% year-over-year. On the exports side, prices were up 1.3% month-over-month and up 11.2% year-over-year. Excluding agricultural products, export prices increased 1.2% month-over-month and were up 11.8% year-over-year.
• Housing starts, meanwhile, plummeted 15.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million units (Briefing.com consensus: 1.440 million), with single-unit starts down 1.9%. Building permits were down 0.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.410 million), with single-unit permits up 0.6%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in starts was concentrated on the multi-unit side, as starts there were down 40.2% month-over-month, yet it would be remiss not to mention that single-unit starts in the South—the largest homebuilding region—were down 5.2% month-over-month.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 4.06%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 4.10%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.17%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.45%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.95%