Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 91.8 in March (Briefing.com consensus: 88.0) from 91.2 in February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 93.9.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the headline numbers don't convey any abject concern among consumers about the Iran war, yet that concern showed up in higher 12-month inflation expectations, which jumped to 6.2% from 5.5% in February, marking the highest level since August 2025.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -5 bps to 3.78%
  • 3-yr: -6 bps to 3.80%
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 3.93%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.31%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.90%