Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14 decreased by 8,000 to 205,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial jobless claims will keep the Fed preoccupied for now with the inflation side of its mandate, which is to say it won't be inclined to cut rates.
• The March Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 18.1 (Briefing.com consensus: 4.7) versus 16.3 in February. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this index is 0.0, so the March reading reflects a slight acceleration from the prior month in manufacturing activity.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: +14 bps to 3.89%
  • 3-yr: +13 bps to 3.88%
  • 5-yr: +9 bps to 3.95%
  • 10-yr: +4 bps to 4.30%
  • 30-yr: unch at 4.88%