Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Industrial production increased 0.7% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising a revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in December. The capacity utilization rate was 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%) versus a revised 75.7% (from 76.3%) in December. Total industrial production increased 2.3% year-over-year while the capacity utilization rate was 3.2 percentage points below its long-run average.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production growth easily exceeded estimates thanks to a healthy 0.6% increase in manufacturing output, which was the biggest since February 2025, and a secondary boost from an increase in the output of utilities.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.46%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.50%
  • 5-yr: +4 bps to 3.66%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 4.08%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.70%