Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 were just 200,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 200,000), up 1,000 from the prior week's revised level. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 10 were 1.849 million, down 26,000 from the prior week's revised level.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial jobless claims substantiates the view that the labor market is still operating in a low-firing environment, which is supportive for consumer spending activity and the growth outlook.
• Q3 real GDP was revised slightly higher to 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.3%) from the advance estimate of 4.3%, with an upward revision to exports and investment superseding a slight downward revision to consumer spending. The GDP Deflator was unrevised at 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.7%).
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it is a dated and little-changed report, so its market-moving capacity is nil; however, it is a headline reminder that the economy was running on the hotter side of things in the third quarter.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.61%
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.68%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.84%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.26%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.86%