Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for December showed a deficit of $144.7 billion compared to a deficit of $86.7 billion in the same period a year ago. The December deficit resulted from outlays ($629.1 billion) exceeding receipts ($484.4 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted, so the December deficit cannot be compared to the November deficit of $173.3 bln.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the fiscal year-to-date deficit remains high, yet it is more than $100 billion less than the same period a year ago when tariff revenues weren't upsized by the president's tariff plan.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 3.52%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.58%
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 3.74%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.17%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.83%