Bond Market Update

Feeling Less Safe

• Treasuries are trading in a narrow range, having relinquished some modest overnight gains that coincided with some weakening in the equity futures market.
• That weakening has been overcome. The Dow (+0.1%), Nasdaq (+0.6%), and S&P 500 (+0.3%) are all in positive territory again, bolstered by strength in the likes of Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA). The former has been bolstered by reports of strong iPhone 17 demand, while the latter has recently spiked on a report that it will be investing up to $100 billion in OpenAI that will enable it to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers with NVIDIA systems.
• With stocks regrouping, there has been less interest in a safe-haven trade grounded in the notion that stocks are overbought and due for a setback, if not a correction. That thinking could change, yet the price action in the equity market has kept such safe-haven thinking at bay.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.59%
  • 3-yr: unch at 3.57%
  • 5-yr: unch at 3.69%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.14%
  • 30-yr: unch at 4.76%