Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.0%) from the advance estimate of 3.0%, helped by an upward revision to consumer spending; meanwhile, the GDP Price Deflator held at 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.0%).
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the Q2 strength revolved around the decrease in imports (-29.8%), which is a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. The next exports component contributed 4.95 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth versus 4.99 points with the advance estimate.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 decreased by 5,000 to 229,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 236,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 16 decreased by 7,000 to 1.954 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims—a leading indicator-- continue to run at low levels, refuting the notion that the labor market is weak. Granted, the labor market has softened a bit, but it is not weak.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.64%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.60%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.71%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.23%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.89%