Bond Market Update

 Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 increased by 11,000 to 235,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 222,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 9 increased by 30,000 to 1.972 million, which is the highest level since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it covers the period in which the survey for the August employment report is completed. The jump in initial and continuing claims is apt to keep economists' nonfarm payroll estimates in a soft growth zone.
• The Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey dropped to -0.3 in August (Briefing.com consensus: 9.0) from 15.9 in July, while the indexes for prices paid (66.8 from 58.8) and prices received (36.1 from 34.8) both went up versus July. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this survey is 0.0. The overall number, then, reflects a contraction in activity versus the prior month, while the price indexes denote an acceleration in price increases.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.76%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.71%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.82%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.31%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.91%