Bond Market Update

FOMC On Tap

• U.S. Treasuries trade just above their morning lows after spending the better part of the past four hours in a sideways range. The subdued action is likely to meet some volatility atop the hour when the FOMC releases its July statement, followed by Fed Chairman Powell's press conference at 14:30 ET. The market currently sees a 57.7% implied likelihood of a rate cut in September, so it will be interesting to see how that probability shifts after the latest update from the Fed.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.89%
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.84%
  • 5-yr: +3 bps to 3.93%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 4.36%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.90%