Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June edged up to 60.7 (Briefing.com consensus 60.5) from the preliminary reading of 60.5. The final reading for May was 52.2. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 68.2.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the June survey showed overall improvement in current sentiment, aided by an improved view of personal finances, business conditions, and the inflation outlook that followed the pause on the reciprocal tariff rates (which is due to expire July 9) and the ensuing stock market rally.
    • The Current Economic Conditions Index improved to 64.8 from the preliminary reading of 63.7. The final reading for May was 58.9. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 65.9.
    • The Index of Consumer Expectations dipped to 58.1 from the preliminary reading of 58.4. The final reading for May was 47.9. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 69.6.
    • Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 5.0% from the preliminary reading of 5.1% and 6.6% in May.
    • Long-run inflation expectations decreased to 4.0% from the preliminary reading of 4.1% and 4.2% in May.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.74%
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.71%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.82%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.26%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.81%