Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 93.0 in June (Briefing.com consensus 99.0) from an upwardly revised 98.4 (from 98.0) in May. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 97.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers were less positive about business conditions and job availability, which is a perception that could lead to reduced discretionary spending activity.
    • The Present Situation Index fell from 135.5 to 129.1.
    • The Expectations Index dropped from 73.6 to 69.0, sticking below the threshold of 80 that typically signals recession ahead.
    • Average 12-month inflation expectations decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%.
• The Q1 Current Account Deficit widened to $450.2 billion from a downwardly revised $312.0 billion (from -$303.9 billion) in the fourth quarter.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.82%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 3.77%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.87%
  • 10-yr: unch at 4.32%
  • 30-yr: unch at 4.86%