Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Personal income increased a robust 0.8% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.5%) in March. Personal spending rose 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, following an unrevised 0.7% increase in March. The PCE Price Index was up 0.1% month-over-month, as expected, which left it up a palatable 2.1% year-over-year versus 2.3% in March. The core-PCE Price Index was also up 0.1%, as expected, leaving it up 2.5% year-over-year versus 2.7% in March.
  • The key takeaway from the report is manifold: inflation rates are moderating, personal income growth is strong, and the personal savings rate picked up to 4.9% from 4.3% in March, which points to pent-up spending potential that will keep the economy on a growth track in the second quarter.
    • The PCE Price Index for Goods was up 0.1% month-over-month and down 0.4% year-over-year versus down 0.3% in March. The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.1% month-over-month, leaving it up 3.3% year-over-year versus 3.5% in March.
    • Wages and salaries increased 0.5% month-over-month after increasing 0.5% in March. Rental income was flat month-over-month after increasing 0.6% in March.
    • Personal interest income rose 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 0.2% in March. Personal dividend income was down 1.0% month-over-month after increasing 0.4% in March.
    • Real disposable income was up 0.7% month-over-month and was up 2.9% year-over-year versus 2.1% in March. Real personal spending increased 0.1% month-over-month and was up 3.2% year-over-year.
    • The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, increased to 4.9% from 4.3% in March.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.93%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.89%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.98%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.41%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.92%