Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for May increased to 52.2 (Briefing.com consensus 50.8) from the preliminary reading of 50.8. The final reading for April was also 52.2. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 69.1.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it ends four consecutive months of plunging declines in sentiment, although consumers still have concerns about their current personal finances and the future, with inflation expectations weighing.
    • The Current Economic Conditions Index bumped up to 58.9 from the preliminary reading of 57.6. The final reading for April was 59.8. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 69.6.
    • The Index of Consumer Expectations jumped to 47.9 from the preliminary reading of 46.5. The final reading for April was 47.3. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 69.6.
    • Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped to 6.6% from the preliminary reading of 7.3%. The final reading for April was 6.5%.
    • Long-run inflation expectations dipped to 4.2% from the preliminary reading of 4.6% and the final reading of 4.4% for April.
• The May Chicago PMI dropped to 40.5 (Briefing.com consensus 45.0) from 44.6 in April.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.92%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.89%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.98%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.40%
  • 30-yr: -3 bps to 4.90%