Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% increase in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. Core CPI was up 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from March.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the absence of any tariff shock in the headlines. Consumer prices, overall, were held in check, for the most part, including food and gasoline.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.98%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.97%
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 4.08%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.45%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.90%