Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Personal income increased 0.5% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after increasing a revised 0.7% (from 0.8%) in February. Personal spending rose 0.7% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after increasing a revised 0.5% (from 0.4%) in February. The PCE Price Index was unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%), which left it up 2.3% year-over-year versus a revised 2.7% (from 2.5%) in February. The core-PCE Price Index was also unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), which left it up 2.6% year-over-year versus a revised 3.0% (from 2.8%) in February.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it showed an acceleration in spending as consumers prepared for the implementation of tariffs. The PCE Price Index decelerated to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.7% while the core PCE Price Index decelerated to 2.6% year-over-year from 3.0%, making for a welcome sight.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -4 bps to 3.62%
  • 3-yr: -4 bps to 3.61%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.76%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.18%
  • 30-yr: +4 bps to 4.68%