Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 29 decreased by 6,000 to 219,000 (Briefing.com consensus 224,000) from last week's revised reading of 225,000 (from 224,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 22 increased by 56,000 to 1.903 million from last week's revised rate of 1.847 million (from 1.856 million).
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims remained at a relatively low level while continuing claims increased to their highest level since November 2021, suggesting that people are having an increasingly difficult time returning to work.
• The February Trade Balance showed a narrowing in the trade deficit to $122.7 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$121.0 billion) from a revised deficit of $130.7 billion (from -$131.4 billion) in January. February imports were $0.1 billion less than January imports while February exports were $8.0 billion more than January exports.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that while there was some sequential narrowing in the trade deficit, the deficit remained in record territory as front-running of purchases continued ahead of April's implementation of tariffs.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -15 bps to 3.75%
  • 3-yr: -18 bps to 3.71%
  • 5-yr: -20 bps to 3.76%
  • 10-yr: -17 bps to 4.03%
  • 30-yr: -11 bps to 4.44%