Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Durable goods orders surged 9.2% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%), bolstered by a 139% increase in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an unrevised 0.7% increase in February.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was a rebound in nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, which rose 0.1% following a 0.3% decline in February. This is indicative of a modest pickup in business spending, albeit before the reciprocal tariff upset on Liberation Day.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19 increased by 6,000 to 222,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 12 decreased by 37,000 to 1.841 million.
  • The key takeaway continues to be found in the leading indicator of initial jobless claims, which continue to run at low levels that are nowhere close to being associated with a recession.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -5 bps to 3.81%
  • 3-yr: -6 bps to 3.82%
  • 5-yr: -6 bps to 3.96%
  • 10-yr: -6 bps to 4.33%
  • 30-yr: -5 bps to 4.79%