Bond Market Update

Long End Lags

• U.S. Treasuries are on track for a modestly higher start in shorter tenors while the long end is expected to show some early relative weakness. Longer tenors held modest losses through the bulk of the overnight session, falling to lows during the past hour. Overnight volume was reduced due to continued Easter closures in Hong Kong and across Europe. The market did not receive any noteworthy data, but the dollar has faced significant pressure against other major currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 1.1% at 98.31 after touching a level not seen since March 2022. Crude oil is on the defensive, giving back the bulk of its gain from Thursday.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.79%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.81%
  • 5-yr: +4 bps to 3.98%
  • 10-yr: +8 bps to 4.41%
  • 30-yr: +9 bps to 4.89%

• News:
  • The People's Bank of China made no changes to its one-year and five-year loan prime rates.
  • Japan may relax its auto safety rules for imports as part of trade negotiations.
  • European Central Bank policymaker Muller cautioned about the inflationary impact of tariffs, adding that increased public spending in Germany could also increase inflation.
• Commodities:
  • WTI Crude: -2.3% to $63.17/bbl
  • Gold: +2.6% to $3415.20/ozt 
  • Copper: +1.3% to $4.80/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: +1.3% to 1.1544
  • GBP/USD: +0.8% to 1.3396
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 7.2916
  • USD/JPY: -1.0% to 140.77
• Data out Today:
  • 10:00 ET: March Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%; prior -0.3%)