Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for March showed a deficit of $160.5 billion compared to a deficit of $236.6 billion in the same period a year ago. The March deficit resulted from outlays ($528.2 billion) exceeding receipts ($367.6 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the March deficit cannot be compared to the February deficit of $307.0 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the deficit so far in fiscal 2025 is 23% greater than the deficit seen at the same time in fiscal 2024.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -10 bps to 3.85%
  • 3-yr: -8 bps to 3.89%
  • 5-yr: -7 bps to 4.03%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.38%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.82%