Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total CPI decreased 0.1% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) and was up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.8% in February. Core CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and was up 2.8% year-over-year versus 3.1% in February.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that, while better than expected, it will be discounted as a lasting improvement given the tariff actions that are now taking root across supply chains.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 increased by 4,000 to 223,000 (Briefing.com consensus 225,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 29 decreased by 43,000 to 1.850 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the relatively low level of initial jobless claims remains consistent with an otherwise solid labor market and an economy still in expansion mode.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -11 bps to 3.84%
  • 3-yr: -12 bps to 3.85%
  • 5-yr: -12 bps to 3.98%
  • 10-yr: -7 bps to 4.33%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.79%