Bond Market Update

Opening Levels Revisited

• U.S. Treasuries are back near their opening levels after slipping from session highs that were reached in reaction to a weak ISM Manufacturing report for March (49.0%; Briefing.com consensus 49.8%; prior 50.3%). This report prompted a downward revision to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q1 GDP, which now calls for a contraction of 3.7%, down from -2.8% in the previous estimate. Today's advance pressured yields toward their lows from March, but the market has found enough intraday resistance to keep those yields from falling to levels not seen since late 2024.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -4 bps to 3.87%
  • 3-yr: -6 bps to 3.85%
  • 5-yr: -7 bps to 3.92%
  • 10-yr: -8 bps to 4.17%
  • 30-yr: -9 bps to 4.53%