Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March (Briefing.com consensus 94.2) from an upwardly revised 100.1 (from 98.3) in February. This was fourth straight month that consumer confidence declined.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the drop in confidence was guided primarily by the decline in consumers' outlook, which was driven by worries about inflation and future employment prospects, the latter of which hit a 12-year low. This can be a combination for a pullback in discretionary spending.
• New home sales increased 1.8% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 680,000) from an upwardly revised 664,000 (from 657,000) in January. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 5.1%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales in February were aided by the drop in mortgage rates, yet affordability constraints remained a headwind as sales of higher-priced homes accounted for a smaller percentage of new home sales in February than the prior month.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 4.02%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 4.00%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 4.08%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.33%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.67%