Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total PPI was unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.4%) in January, and core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was down 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.3%) in January. On a year-over-year basis, total PPI was up 3.2%, versus 3.7% in January, and core PPI was up 3.4% versus 3.8% in January.
  • The key takeaway from the report is comparable to the key takeaway from the CPI report: inflation at the wholesale level, while improving, is still too high, and with the tariff battles heating up, there is concern that the disinflation isn't going to persist.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 8 decreased by 2,000 to 220,000 (Briefing.com consensus 228,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 1 decreased by 27,000 to 1.870 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims -- a leading indicator -- held steady at relatively low levels that are consistent with an otherwise sound labor market.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 4.00%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 4.00%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 4.09%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.33%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.65%