Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for February showed a deficit of $307.0 billion compared to a deficit of $296.3 billion in the same period a year ago. The February deficit resulted from outlays ($603.4 billion) exceeding receipts ($296.4 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the February deficit cannot be compared to the January deficit of $128.6 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the deficit in early fiscal 2025 is 38.5% greater than the deficit for the same period in fiscal 2024 with net interest outlays ($396 billion) nearly equal to outlays for national defense ($399 billion) and health ($399 billion).
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +6 bps to 4.00%
  • 3-yr: +5 bps to 3.99%
  • 5-yr: +4 bps to 4.08%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 4.32%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.63%