Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• U.S. Treasuries saw some impulse buying in immediate reaction to a cooler-than-expected CPI report for February, but the brief bounce was reversed immediately, returning action to levels seen at today's cash open.
• Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.5% increase in January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.8%, versus 3.0% in January, and core CPI was up 3.1%, versus 3.2% in January.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that inflation overall is still sticking comfortably above the Fed's 2.0% target, and now with tariff actions ramping up -- and "reciprocal tariffs" coming April 2 -- confidence has been shaken that future inflation reports will convey undeniably pleasing inflation data.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.96%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.97%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 4.06%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.31%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.62%