Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for January showed a deficit of $128.6 billion compared to a deficit of $21.9 billion in the same period a year ago. The January deficit resulted from outlays ($641.9 billion) exceeding receipts ($513.3 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the January deficit cannot be compared to the December deficit of $86.7 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the deficit in early fiscal 2025 is 57.9% greater than the deficit for the same period in fiscal 2024.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +8 bps to 4.37%
  • 3-yr: +9 bps to 4.40%
  • 5-yr: +11 bps to 4.48%
  • 10-yr: +10 bps to 4.64%
  • 30-yr: +8 bps to 4.83%