Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The September trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.7 billion) from an upwardly revised $59.3 billion (from -$59.6 billion) in August.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the narrower deficit was the byproduct of exports being $8.4 billion more than August exports and imports being $1.9 billion more than August imports.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 increased by 44,000 to 236,000. Poor seasonal adjustment factors have attracted blame for the big week-over-week jump in initial claims from the Thanksgiving week. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 29 decreased by 99,000 to 1.838 million, which is the lowest since April 2025.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that, on balance, it doesn't point to a material weakening in the labor market.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -5 bps to 3.52%
  • 3-yr: -5 bps to 3.56%
  • 5-yr: -6 bps to 3.70%
  • 10-yr: -4 bps to 4.13%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.78%