Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.9%), seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025. That was a moderation from the 0.9% increase registered in the second quarter.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it was an inflation-friendly report, evidenced by wages and salaries decelerating on a year-over-year basis for civilian workers (3.5% vs 3.9% a year ago), private industry (3.6% vs 3.8% a year ago), and state and local government workers (3.5% vs 4.6% a year ago).
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.62%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.66%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.80%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.20%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.82%