Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 225,000). That is the lowest level of initial claims since April. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 15 increased by 7,000 to 1.960 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims filings are nowhere close to a recession-type level and continue to reflect a generally low-firing environment.
• Durable goods orders increased 0.5% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 3.0% increase (from 2.9%) in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.4%) in August.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that business spending, viewed through the lens of nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (+0.9%), showed no signs of slowing, keeping pace with the 0.9% increase seen in August and exceeding the 0.7% growth rate in July.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +3 bps to 3.49%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.48%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.59%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.02%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.67%