Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.
  • This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased by 8,000 to a lowly 220,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28,000 to a not-so-lowly 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it corroborates the low firing, low hiring narrative hanging over the labor market.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 3.57%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.57%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.69%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.12%
  • 30-yr: UNCH at 4.75%