Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial Jobless Claims for week ending Oct 18 were 232K (prior revised to 219K from 218K); Continuing Jobless CLaims for week ending Oct 11 were 1947K (prior revised to 1916K from 1926K)
• ADP says, "For the four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week as employment losses slowed heading into November"
• November NAHB Housing Market Index (Actual 38; Briefing.com consensus: 36; prior 37)
• Factory orders increased 1.4% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: 0.8%) following a 1.3% decline in July. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased 0.1% month-over-month following a 0.5% increase in July. Shipments of manufactured goods slipped 0.1% on the heels of a 0.9% increase in July.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that business spending remained on an upswing, evidenced by back-to-back increases in new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, in July and August.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -4 bps to 3.57%
  • 3-yr: -5 bps to 3.56%
  • 5-yr: -4 bps to 3.68%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.10%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.73%