Bond Market Update

Eye on Growth

• The Treasury market has seen some vacillation today, with the long end outperforming the short end of the curve in a bull flattener trade.
• Concerns about the labor market and overall growth have been pitted against the continuing optimism about the AI buildout.
• The economy and the growth trade will be in focus all week, as several key happenings will dictate the market's mindset about the growth outlook.
  • Earnings results from retailers Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX Cos. (TJX), and Walmart (WMT)
  • Microsoft (MSFT) Ignite Conference (Nov. 18-21)
  • The FOMC Minutes for the October 28-29 meeting (Wednesday)
  • NVIDIA's (NVDA) earnings report (after the close Wednesday)
  • The September Employment Situation Report (Thursday)
• The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December FOMC meeting has slipped to 39.9%, versus 44.4% on Friday and 93.7% amonth ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: unch at 3.61%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 3.61%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.72%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.13%
  • 30-yr: -3 bps to 4.72%