Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for September showed a surplus of $198.0 billion compared to a surplus of $80.3 billion in the same period a year ago. That is the largest monthly surplus since April 2025. The September surplus resulted from receipts ($544.0 billion) exceeding outlays ($346.0 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted, so the September surplus cannot be compared to the August deficit of $344.8 bln.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the FY25 deficit was less than the FY24 deficit. That is the good news. The bad news is that the FY25 deficit was still $1.775 trillion, even with the collection of $195 billion in customs duties (for tariffs).
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -8 bps to 3.42%
  • 3-yr: -9 bps to 3.42%
  • 5-yr: -8 bps to 3.55%
  • 10-yr: -7 bps to 3.98%
  • 30-yr: -5 bps to 4.59%