Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The September ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 49.1% for September (Briefing.com consensus: 49.2%), up from 48.7% in August. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the September figure, which is the seventh straight month below 50.0%, suggests manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace than the prior month.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the manufacturing sector remains in a state of contraction, with new order activity under pressure from tariff costs and uncertainty.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -5 bps to 3.55%
  • 3-yr: -5 bps to 3.56%
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 3.69%
  • 10-yr: -4 bps to 4.11%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.71%