Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 28 decreased by 9,000 to 211,000 (Briefing.com consensus 224,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 21 decreased by 52,000 to 1.844 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the low level of initial claims -- a leading indicator -- as that connotes a situation where employers are reluctant to let employees go, which goes hand-in-hand with an optimistic view of business prospects.
• The MBA Mortgage Applications Index was down 21.9% from two weeks before with refinance applications down 36% and purchase applications down 13% (note: this data is usually released on a weekly basis, so the actuals, which aren't necessarily good, also aren't as bad as they appear at first blush).
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 4.22%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 4.25%
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 4.35%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.55%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.77%