Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for December showed a deficit of $86.7 billion compared to a deficit of $129.4 billion in the same period a year ago. The December deficit resulted from outlays ($541 billion) exceeding receipts ($454 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the December deficit cannot be compared to the November deficit of $366.7 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the deficit in early fiscal 2025 is 39.4% greater than the deficit for the same period in fiscal 2024.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 4.37%
  • 3-yr: -3 bps to 4.47%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.60%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.80%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.99%