Bond Market Update

Steady So Far

• U.S. Treasuries trade near their unchanged levels, masking a busy start to the week in global bond and equity markets. The cash session started with modest gains in longer tenors after a night that saw weakness in global bonds, including some additional selling in U.S. Treasury futures. However, the U.S. market is putting up a bit of a fight, with longer tenors trying to rise off levels not seen since late 2023 while the 2-yr note is inching up off levels last seen in late July. The market will receive the latest survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed atop the hour, which could assist the bounce attempt if the survey shows a dip in inflation expectations. Conversely, an uptick could add to pressure on Treasuries, and in turn, rate cut expectations. Equities are off to a soft start with the Nasdaq (-1.4%) showing relative weakness while the S&P 500 (-0.7%) holds a slimmer loss and the Dow (+0.2%) is slightly positive for the day.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: UNCH at 4.40%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 4.49%
  • 5-yr: UNCH at 4.60%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.78%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.96%