Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total retail sales increased 0.1% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) following an upwardly revised 1.1% (from 1.0%) in July. Excluding autos, retail sales were also up 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an unrevised 0.4% increase in July.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that control group sales -- the component that factors into GDP -- were up a sturdy 0.3% following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in July and 0.9% increase in June. There is no hard landing in those numbers.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.58%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.45%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.41%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 3.63%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 3.93%