Bond Market Update

Resilient Again

• U.S. Treasuries have made it back into positive territory with 10s and 30s trading at fresh highs while shorter tenors remain a bit closer to their starting levels. Today's intraday action has been largely uneventful, which is not a huge surprise, considering the looming FOMC meeting. The timing of the initial rate cut has been the subject of a year-long debate, but that should be put to rest when the FOMC releases its Statement in just over 48 hours. However, the size of the upcoming cut is still uncertain with the fed funds futures market implying a 59.0% likelihood of a 50-bps cut up from a toss-up on Friday. In equities, the S&P 500 remains just below its flat line as weakness in technology offsets gains in most remaining sectors.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 3.55%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.42%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.41%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 3.63%
  • 30-yr: -4 bps to 3.94%