Bond Market Update

Losses Extended

• U.S. Treasuries trade just above session lows that were notched in recent action. The market made a couple bounce attempts today, but each time, a brief recovery was followed by a slip to fresh lows. Today's retreat puts yields on 5s and longer tenors back at their closing levels from Monday ahead of tomorrow's speech from Fed Chairman Powell. Mr. Powell will begin speaking from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at 10:00 ET, but even before this speech, the fed funds futures market is already pricing in a 100% implied likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut and a 24.5% probability of a 50 bps decrease.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +9 bps to 4.01%
  • 3-yr: +9 bps to 3.82%
  • 5-yr: +10 bps to 3.73%
  • 10-yr: +9 bps to 3.87%
  • 30-yr: +9 bps to 4.14%