Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment for August increased to 67.8 (Briefing.com consensus 66.7) from the final reading of 66.4 for July. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 69.4.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sentiment in August was swayed by political developments, yet the take-home point is that inflation is still the top concern among consumers.
    • The Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 60.9 from the final reading of 62.7 for July. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 75.5.
    • The Index of Consumer Expectations jumped to 72.1 from the final reading of 68.8 for July. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 65.4.
    • Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 2.9% for the second straight month.
    • Long-run inflation expectations held at 3.0%, unchanged from the last five months.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 4.08%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.89%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.78%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 3.90%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.16%