Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Retail sales were flat in June (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May, pressured by a decline in auto sales related to the CDK Global cyberattack and lower gas prices. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month. Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after an upwardly revised 0.1% increase (from -0.1%) in May.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it conveyed some rather solid levels of discretionary spending on goods in June that belies any hard landing tracking for the economy.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 4.46%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 4.24%
  • 5-yr: UNCH at 4.13%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.20%
  • 30-yr: -3 bps to 4.42%