Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for June showed a deficit of $66.0 billion compared to a deficit of $227.8 billion in the same period a year ago. The June deficit resulted from outlays ($532.2 billion) exceeding receipts ($466.3 billion). The Treasury Budget data is not seasonally adjusted so the June deficit cannot be compared to the May deficit of $347.1 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that while the June deficit was much smaller than a year ago, it comes after a sharp year-over-year increase in the May deficit. As a result, the deficit between May and June increased by $413 billion after increasing by $468 billion between May and June 2023.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -12 bps to 4.51%
  • 3-yr: -12 bps to 4.27%
  • 5-yr: -11 bps to 4.13%
  • 10-yr: -9 bps to 4.19%
  • 30-yr: -6 bps to 4.41%