Bond Market Update

Ticking Higher Ahead of April NFP

• U.S. Treasuries are on track for a slightly higher start, but they are likely to see some early volatility in reaction to the 8:30 ET release of the Employment Situation report for April (Briefing.com consensus 250,000; prior 303,000). Treasury futures inched higher in early evening action, seeing a brief reversal of the advance at the start of the European session. However, the past couple hours have seen a push to fresh highs. Overnight volume was reduced once again by holiday closures in China and Japan while the Japanese yen continued rebounding against the dollar after falling to a fresh multi-decade low earlier this week. In Europe, Norway's central bank said that it expects to hold rates at their current level "for quite some time." Crude oil is looking to recover a small portion of this week's loss while the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% at 105.17.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 4.87%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 4.71%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.55%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.56%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.71%

• News:
  • European Central Bank policymaker Stournaras said that he now expects three cuts this year, down from the previous forecast for four.
  • European Central Bank chief economist Lane said that policymakers will not commit to a specific rate path. 
  • Australia's final April Services PMI hit 53.6 (expected 54.2; last 54.4) and March Home Loans rose 2.8% m/m (expected 1.0%; last 1.5%).
  • Singapore's March Retail Sales were down 1.0% m/m (last 3.1%) but rose 2.7% yr/yr (last 8.6%).
  • Hong Kong's March Retail Sales fell 7.0% yr/yr (last 1.9%).
  • Eurozone's March Unemployment Rate remained at 6.5%, as expected. 
  • U.K.'s final April Services PMI rose to 55.0 from 53.1 (expected 54.9).
  • France's March Industrial Production was down 0.3% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%).
  • Italy's March Unemployment Rate fell to 7.2% from 7.4% (expected 7.5%).
  • Spain's April Unemployment decreased by 52,800 (expected -74,500; last -33,400).
• Commodities:
  • WTI Crude: +0.4% to $79.28/bbl
  • Gold: -0.1% to $2306.70/ozt
  • Copper: +0.9% to $4.524/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.0744
  • GBP/USD: +0.2% to 1.2556
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 7.1940
  • USD/JPY: -0.3% to 153.20
• Data out Today:
  • 8:30 ET: April Nonfarm Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 250,000; prior 303,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 175,000; prior 232,000), Average Hourly Earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%), Unemployment Rate (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%; prior 3.8%), and Average Workweek (Briefing.com consensus 34.4; prior 34.4)
  • 10:00 ET: April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Briefing.com consensus 51.8%; prior 51.4%)